City-level impact of extreme temperatures and mortality in Latin America

Josiah L. Kephart1, Brisa N. Sánchez2, Jeffrey Moore2, Leah H. Schinasi 1, Maryia Bakhtsiyarava4, Yang Ju5, Nelson Gouveia6, Waleska T Caiaffa7, Iryna Dronova8, Saravanan Arunachalam9, Ana V. Diez Roux1,2,§ , Daniel A. Rodríguez4,§
1. Urban Health Collaborative, Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 19104
2. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 19104
3. Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 19104
4. Department of City and Regional Planning and Institute for Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley, California, 94720
5. Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California, Berkeley, California, 94720
6. Department of Preventive Medicine, University of Sao Paulo Medical School, Sao Paulo, Brazil, 05508-270
7. Observatório de Saúde Urbana de Belo Horizonte, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, 30130-100
9. Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, 27517
§ Joint senior authors

Citation: Kephart, J.L., Sánchez, B.N., Moore, J. et al. City-level impact of extreme temperatures and mortality in Latin America. Nat Med (2022). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01872-6

Supplemental App

Our article describes the proportion of deaths in Latin American cities that are attributable to non-optimal ambient temperatures. This app translates the article figures into interactive visualizations, allowing more granular exploration of the article analysis. Please contact Dr. Josiah L. Kephart if you have questions.

Abstract

Manuscript Link: https://https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01872-6

Climate change and urbanization are rapidly increasing human exposure to extreme ambient temperatures, yet few studies have examined temperature and mortality in Latin America. We conducted a nonlinear, distributed-lag, longitudinal analysis of daily ambient temperatures and mortality among 326 Latin American cities between 2002 and 2015. We observed 15,431,532 deaths among ≈2.9 billion person-years of risk. The excess death fraction of total deaths was 0.67% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58–0.74%) for heat-related deaths and 5.09% (95% CI 4.64–5.47%) for cold-related deaths. The relative risk of death was 1.057 (95% CI 1.046–1.067%) per 1 °C higher temperature during extreme heat and 1.034 (95% CI 1.028–1.040%) per 1 °C lower temperature during extreme cold. In Latin American cities, a substantial proportion of deaths is attributable to nonoptimal ambient temperatures. Marginal increases in observed hot temperatures are associated with steep increases in mortality risk. These risks were strongest among older adults and for cardiovascular and respiratory deaths.

Temperature-mortality curve with histogram of daily temperatures